Revisiting the Wage Phillips Curve
Abstract
It is well known that unemployment rates (a measure of worker strength) in a competitive capitalist economy fluctuate in a business cycle. However, this loss or gain may not be distributed evenly or can vary based on the institutional structure and monetary policies. This paper will examine the economic period from 1949 to 2021, which captures the role of monetary policies impact of the Phillips Curve on post war US economy. There is a consensus of three distinct economic periods - the post war recovery and golden age 1960-1972; Stagflation and neoliberal adjustment, 1973-1993; and, Great moderation, secular stagnation, and major crises, 1994-2023. The later economic period is seen as the dawn of the neoliberal stage of capitalism where collective bargaining power of workers began to diminish. This period is significant for the empirical and theoretical work of Heterodox and Post Keynesian economists who in general believe thus conflict is essential in examining the flattening of the Phillips Curve. The paper builds and extends the work of these economists.
Tazewell V Hurst III
HurstDataInfo, LLC
December 2022
Revised October 2023
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